Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.578714 2.066410 2.717330 3.669818 5.063138e+00 7.085006 10.355012
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.030147 1.522818 2.292338 3.645139 6.111460e+00 10.755984 21.157002
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.789296 1.299231 2.218641 4.150790 8.588339e+00 19.869749 58.573425
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.613192 1.107164 2.118703 4.633701 1.193965e+01 38.015934 196.366037
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.494253 0.970838 2.070485 5.301503 1.738798e+01 82.592031 1041.020091
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.401366 0.848858 1.998744 5.960844 2.523128e+01 196.188760 12123.723071
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.309775 0.691073 1.752051 5.888814 3.097194e+01 394.200796 427061.427125
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.238292 0.554118 1.490066 5.529753 3.526823e+01 748.575700 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.197647 0.481967 1.388770 5.815303 4.776430e+01 2290.844850 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.173963 0.447453 1.396339 6.765307 7.774210e+01 16443.956197 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.157257 0.426912 1.447707 8.232369 1.431368e+02 835630.321654 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.137141 0.387398 1.398930 9.032440 2.272997e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.113889 0.330823 1.249652 8.867004 3.021533e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.094031 0.278902 1.090109 8.325056 3.664323e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.083501 0.256711 1.065023 9.288022 6.838623e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074147 0.235315 1.030324 10.181941 1.314159e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.066988 0.219725 1.018558 11.554116 3.110492e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.060515 0.204421 0.998048 12.901632 8.164081e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.052568 0.180035 0.900872 12.413158 1.289512e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045260 0.156161 0.791885 11.301351 1.586403e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.040830 0.143567 0.753426 11.790452 4.132208e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038268 0.138463 0.765898 13.877380 3.816993e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036457 0.136190 0.799806 17.262179 1.337193e+08 NaN NaN